Vol.21 – 2015 – Special Issue

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Proceedings of MedCLIVAR 2014 Conference

Understanding Climate Evolution and Effects on Environment and Societies in the Old World Region


23-25 JUNE 2014

This special volume of the Journal of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Environment has been made possible by special privilege provided by TÜDAV the Turkish Marine Research Foundation. We, the conference organizers and co-editors, express our deepest felt gratitude to Bayram Öztürk, the chief editor of the journal, for his generous support, and as well to Arda Tonay, for handling the production during the leave, to Antarctica, of the chief editor. In addition to us, conference conveners Vincenzo Artale, Giovanni Zanchetta, Murat Türkeş, Gabriel Jordà, Elena Xoplaki, Levent Kurnaz, Andrea Toreti and Serge Planton shared the responsibility as guest co-editors for groups of papers. We also thank Riccardo Buccolieri ofUniversità del Salento and Tuğçe Gül of TÜDAV, serving as technical editors of this volume, for their careful and creative work.

The international MedCLIVAR 2014 Conference “Understanding Climate Evolution and Effects on Environment and Societies in the Old World Region” has been convened at the Cultural and Congress Center of the Middle East Technical University in Ankara during 23-25 June 2014. We thank METU (the Middle East Technical University, Ankara), for providing the venue and services, along with the EGU (European Geosciences Union), AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia – State Meteorological Agency, Spain), CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy), ENEA (Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile – National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Italy), for providing generous support for the conference. The conference has been the last one in a series of other conferences, summer schools and courses carried out by the MedCLIVAR network of international scientists.

The conference included the following sessions: (1) paleoclimate and the human dimension, (2) the regional climate system: observations and process studies, (3) extreme events, (4) model simulations of climate variability and climate change, (5) impacts of natural and anthropogenic climate change and mitigation/adaptation strategies, covering a wide spectrum of regional mechanisms and problems associated with the earth’s climate, based upon up-to-date scientific methodology to understand and predict their environmental and societal effects.

The papers in this special volume are the short 4 page extended abstracts of the original scientific work presented at the conference. They constitute a subset of the conference contributions selected by the editors based on originality and relevance to the above program of the sessions.

We hope this publication in JMBSE will raise our common conscience, encourage and enhance climate research in Turkey as well as in Europe through an integrated research agenda dictated by the approaching climate risks and dangers, which are very real in the Old World region.


Extreme precipitation events over the Euro-Mediterranean region: projections dependence on daily/sub-daily time scale definition

Enrico Scoccimarro, Gabriele Villarini, Silvio Gualdi, Alessio Bellucci,Matteo Zampieri, Marcello Vichi, Antonio Navarra

Dry events in the Mediterranean basin at 5.2 and 5.6 ka as recorded by stable isotopes in Corchia (Italy) and Soreq (Israel) caves speleothems

Giovanni Zanchetta, Mira Bar-Matthews, Eleonora Regattieri, Russell N. Drysdale, Piero Lionello, Avner Ayalon, Ilaria Isola, John C. Hellstrom

Trend towards earlier spring runoff in Alps

Matteo Zampieri, Enrico Scoccimarro, Silvio Gualdi

Stable isotopic record from 160 to 121 ka from Tana Che Urla Cave (Apuan Alps, central Italy)

Eleonora Regattieri E., Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, John C. Hellstrom

Reliability of uncertainty estimates from climate projection ensembles

Josep Llasses, Gabriel Jordà, Damià Gomis

A regional climate model versus a surface energy balance model in estimating the evapotranspiration distribution in the semi-arid Konya Basin, Turkey

Mustafa Gökmen, Barış Önol, Ömer Lütfi Şen

Recent mixed layer warming and deepening in the Mediterranean Sea

Irene Rivetti, Ferdinando Boero, Simonetta Fraschetti, Enrico Zambianchi, Piero Lionello

Impacts of climate change on water demand and yield of Mediterranean crops

Mladen Todorovic, Piero Lionello, Luis S. Pereira, Claudia Pizzigalli,Sameh Saadi, Lazar Tanasijevic

Heat-related impacts of climate change in the East Mediterranean

Christos Giannakopoulos, Anna Karali, Vassilis Psiloglou, Giannis Lemesios

Mediterranean model response to enhanced resolution at Gibraltar and tidal forcing

Gianmaria Sannino, Adriana Carillo, Giovanna Pisacane, Mario Adani, Massimiliano Palma, Cristina Naranjo, Maria Vittoria Struglia

Assessment of temperature and precipitation extremes with climate indices by using high resolution climate simulation

Fulden Batıbeniz, Barış Önol

Climate trends of sea surface and air temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin

Karam Mansour, Ahmed El-Gindy, Fahmy Eid, Mohamed Shaltout

Forty years of geostrophic currents in the Ligurian Sea

Simona Aracri, Harry L. Bryden, Jacopo Chiggiato, Elaine McDonagh, Simon A. Josey, Katrin Schroeder, Mireno Borghini

Climate projections of maximum water level during storms along thecoasts of the Mediterranean Sea for the 2021-2050 period

Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, Luigi Marzo, Luca Scarascia

Changes in the contribution of moisture from the Mediterranean Basin to the continental precipitation from 1980 onwards: a Lagrangian analysis
Anita Drumond, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Raquel Nieto

Cyclone-precipitation analysis for the island of Crete

Vasiliki Iordanidou, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Ioannis K. Tsanis

Investigating deep-water formation variability in the Aegean Sea and its influence in the adjacent basins deep circulation

Sarantis Sofianos, Vassilios Vervatis, Anneta Mantziafou, Michael Ravdas, Sotiria Georgiou

Late Pleistocene-Holocene climate transition in the western Mediterranean: a view from the stable isotopes of land snail shells

André Carlo Colonese, Giovanni Zanchetta, Anthony E. Fallick, Russell Drysdale

A 600 year-long drought index for central Anatolia

Hakan Yiğitbaşıoğlu, Jonathan R. Dean, Warren J. Eastwood, Neil Roberts, Matthew D. Jones, Melanie J. Leng

Modeling of near future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey and surrounding regions

M. Tufan Turp, Tuğba Öztürk, Murat Türkeş, M. Levent Kurnaz

Assessment of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation over the Mediterranean region via multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP5 models

M. Tufan Turp, Tuğba Öztürk, Murat Türkeş, M. Levent Kurnaz

Changing climate: a great challenge for Turkey

Ömer Lütfi Şen, Ozan Mert Göktürk, Deniz Bozkurt

The early Holocene Black Sea reconnection with the Mediterranean: implications for benthic ecological changes on the Caucasian shelf

Elena Ivanova, Maria Zenina, Fabienne Marret, Ivar Murdmaa, Andrey Chepalyga, Lee Bradley, Maria Zyryanova

Recent advancements on modelling the exchange flow dynamics through the Turkish Straits System   

Gianmaria Sannino, Adil Sözer, Emin Özsoy

Effects of the Etesian wind regime on coastal upwelling, floods and forest fires in the seas of the old world

Ozan Mert Göktürk, Sinan Çevik, Nathalie Toque, Robinson Hordoir,Hazem Nagy, Emin Özsoy

Climate change leads to more frequent but smaller fires in a Mediterranean environment

Marco Turco, Maria­Carmen Llasat, Jost von Hardenberg, Antonello Provenzale